Base rate, Occam's razor, and hypoglycemia

Base-rate training without case cues reduces base-rate neglect.

Base-rate neglect is a persistent phenomenon in which subjects do not place sufficient weight on the probabilities of occurrence of relevant events. Two experiments with college students support the hypothesis that base-rate neglect may be minimized by providing base-rate training in the absence of case, or witness, cues, prior to introducing (or reintroducing) these cues. In Experiment 1, the ...

Occam's Razor

The Bayesian paradigm apparently only sometimes gives rise to Occam’s Razor; at other times very large models perform well. We give simple examples of both kinds of behaviour. The two views are reconciled when measuring complexity of functions, rather than of the machinery used to implement them. We analyze the complexity of functions for some linear in the parameter models that are equivalent ...

Diagnosticity and the base-rate effect.

Realist ennui and the base rate fallacy

The no-miracles argument and the pessimistic induction are arguably the main considerations for and against scientific realism. Recently these arguments have been accused of embodying a familiar, seductive fallacy. In each case, we are tricked by a base rate fallacy, one much-discussed in the psychological literature. In this paper we consider this accusation and use it as an explanation for wh...

Base-Rate Neglect and Imperfect Information Acquisition

Base-rate neglect is a robust experimental finding that individuals do not update their prior beliefs according to the Bayes’ rule and, typically, underestimate their posterior probabilities. Another empirical finding is that individuals often do not acquire information even when there are no strategic considerations and the cost of new information is justifiable economically. This paper combin...